| The popular thing since Matt Adams went down with a torn quad has been to take a look at possible replacements for Big City in the Cardinals lineup. In all fairness, had his production continued (.243/.281/.375) into July, we would be having this conversation then. As things stand, we’re having it early. The only but in this conversation is that Mark Reynolds (.259/.325/.393) gets the month of June to prove he can hold down the first base job. Reynolds has been serviceable thus far, and there is no rush to get something done. Still, it doesn’t hurt to mull over options, as I’m sure John Mozelaik is doing. Let’s take a look at the options in tiers:
Role Players
There’s nothing wrong with patching up a hole in the lineup with role players, as the success of the Pirates and A’s over the last few years show us. With a strong lineup and strong outfield depth, patching up first base with a compliment to Reynolds isn’t the worst idea in the world, especially considering the relatively low cost both in money and trade of picking up a player like:
Ike Davis, Athletics
.282/.348/.427 in 103 AB’s
• Davis once looked to be a promising player in New York, but has settled into more of a platoon player of the last two years. Of his 103 AB’s, 95 have come against lefties, against whom he has a .775 OPS. Davis is the type of name you typically see on the transaction ticker.
Justin Smoak, Blue Jays
.266/.356/.438 in 64 AB’s
• Smoak, like Davis, is a former top prospect who has settled into a platoon role. The switch hitter has seen left handed pitching only 3 times all season, and is has a .794 OPS and 3 homers against right-handed pitching. Smoak is in the same service class and price range as Davis.
Logan Morrison, Mariners
.240/.320/.385
• Third on the fallen prospect train is Logan Morrison, who at one point looked to be Giancarlo Stanton’s long-term lineup protection, is in Seattle now. He’s been serviceable, but unspectacular. He does have a .795 OPS against right handed pitching with 6 homers though. Not an ideal fit, but a possible useful player.
Seth Smith, Mariners
.262/.325/.489
• Seth Smith is the poster boy for platoons, with a lifetime .837. He can also play the corner outfield spots. He’s also owed $8 million, including the buyout on his 2016 option. It’s a steep price to pay for a part time player. He can play the outfield, is coming off a 4 WAR season and has been worth 1 WAR so far this year, so he’s worth a look. Seattle may not be ready to give up on a playoff birth or sacrifice a player they control next year, though.
Adam Lind, Brewers
.278/.359/.500 in 162 AB’s
• It may seem like a head scratching choice to list Lind among the role players, but his extreme platoon splits have rendered Lind a part time player at this point. He may be the Cadillac of platoon guys, but a platoon guy nonetheless, as Lind has mashed right handed pitching with a .290/.373/.536 line with 8 homers. Still, he has a .561 OPS against lefties, plays for a division rival, and may be a popular name on the trade market thanks to his pop. He may not be an ideal fit, and the idea of the Cardinals exercising his 8 million dollar option for next year in a hypothetical trade is questionable.
Buy-Low Starters
Chris Davis, Orioles
.227/.313/.500 in 172 AB’s
• Chris Davis is two years removed from a 53 homer season, which was good for 3rd place in the AL MVP race. So why is Davis in the buy low category? He followed that MVP caliber season with a .195/.300/.404 line in 2014. In 2015, the power has been there, with 12 homers and a .500 SLG, but the OBP is still down, and he’s leading the league in K’s with 70. With the Orioles falling further down the ladder, it makes sense that they would entertain offers for the impending free agent. A qualifying offer seems to be a bit of a gamble at this point, but it certainly isn’t 100% off the table for the O’s, which clouds what kind of trade value Davis has with a first round pick possibly hanging over his head at season’s end.
Mike Napoli, Red Sox
.208/.323/.403
•When he’s firing on all cylinders, Napoli is a dangerous hitter. He also has a sterling post-season reputation, as the Cardinals saw first with the Rangers in 2011 and later with the Red Sox in 2013. Still, Napoli is trending downward over the last two years. His power was down in 2014, but he still managed 17 long balls and a .370 OBP. This year, Napoli has 8 homers but is hitting just a shade above the Mendoza line. He can still walk, but with health questions and contact struggles Napoli is no lock to be productive so the price must be right.
Brandon Moss
.239/.310/.454
• This name may be forced off the list by team play soon, as a recent hot streak may have pushed the Indians back onto the edge of contention. If they slip back to the bottom, Brandon Moss may be had. Is he much to write home about? No, he isn’t. He is, however, a competent major league hitter who has averaged roughly 2 WAR over the last three seasons. In 2015, Moss has 8 homers, but a less than inspiring .310 OBP. He has extensive experience in the corner outfield, which is a plus, and is controllable in 2016.
Outside the Box
While I’m not wild about the idea of moving the guy yet again, these two names would be upgrades that would slot in comfortably at the hot corner. Again, not my first choice, but an idea to consider.
Martin Prado 3B, Marlins
.284/.318/.370
• Prado hasn’t been himself at the plate over the last two years, but he is still a competent hitter who plays quality defense at 3rd. He also can play 2nd and the outfield, which would give Mike Matheny plenty of rest flexibility and insurance incase of injury to Kolten Wong. Is Prado a middle of the order thumper? No, but he is a versatile, quality player. One bit of pause may come from the $11 million owed to him next year ($3 million of which will be paid by the Yankees), but depending on his production that one could go either way.
Adrian Beltr, Rangers
.257/.295/.408
• Name value aside, this potential deal has many causes for pause. First, look at Beltre’s .702 OPS. It’s very un-Beltre-like. He’s 36. He’s owed $18 million next year. He’s on the DL. Like I said, very many “uh oh” moments. Still, he’s Adrian Beltre! He’s still an elite glove at the hot corner, and would give the Cardinals an imposing defensive infield with the sure handed Jhonny Peralta sandwiched between the rangy Beltre and Wong. Beltre is on a five-year tear in the AL, with a .879 OPS as recently as last year. It’s a gamble for sure, it’s one of the riskiest propositions on this list. However, it also has lots of upside.
Slash! Splash! Splash!
The next three names are the type of big splash deals the Cardinals rarely do, but both would be a permanent solution at 1st.
Edwin Ecarnacion, Blue Jays
.216/.300/.437
• By the measure of his last few years, Encarnacion is having a down year. He’s basically been a right-handed Chris Davis with less strikeouts. So why is he in the splash section and not bounce back? Over the last four years, Encarnacion has torn through the AL and been one of the most consistently effective middle of the order hitters in the game. For three strait years he has posted an OPS over .900, and he has an affordable option for next season at $10 million. For those reasons, the Blue Jays will have no shortage of interest if and when they make Encarnacion available and they certainly will not give him away.
Carlos Santana, Indians
.227/.381/.383
• Is Carlos Santana going to win a batting title? No, likely not. Consider this: he led the AL in walks in 2014 with 113 and is doing so again in 2015 with 39. In short, Santana is an on-base machine. He has pop, is a switch hitter, and is in his prime at age 29. He is under team control for two more years at team-friendly pricing. For those reasons, and the Indians’ recent play, it seems unlikely that Santana is available. If he is, he won’t come cheap. Still, he’d look good in red.
Prince Fielder, Rangers
.359/.412/.563
• There is around a 0.000000000000001% chance of this deal ever going down, but if you squint just right it’s barely outside of the realm of insanity. Fielder is on a tear, and while the Rangers are currently above .500 the safe bet is that they are sellers by July. That being said, Fielder is coming off an injury year, there are legit questions about how long he can remain in the field, and he’s owed $24 million over the next five years. Oh, and he’s 31. The comfort comes from knowing the Tigers are paying $6 million of his salary each year, making him essentially a $90 million dollar player. In today’s money, that isn’t that bad. Still, it’s not going to happen. He’d be the kind of bat that would change everything, though. |